Monday, September 29, 2008

I Can't Believe I Am Typing This.

I am a pretty liberal type of guy. Not flaming. I have come to despise the 2000s versions of hate-filled, war-mongering, speaking-in-tongue, scripture-reliant Republican party in so many ways. But I'm also not much of a granola-crunching, sandal-wearing, dye-free leftist either.

But I am sorta glad they wingnut crowd put a (temporary?) stop to the "$700B Bailout".

Of course, the markets are in meltdown, but that's mostly due to uncertainty, which is the lifeblood of "loss". Markets become irrational when dealing with uncertainty.

But, you know, things haven't been all that great for all that many for quite some time. Yet the ultra-rich crowd has only gotten more ultra- and more -rich all this millenium.  Occupancy of high-end hotels isn't exactly lacking. I just perused Las Vegas hotel rates for next weekend.  The Wynn has rooms available for $1100 a night.  And they will get filled by those who have been untouched.  High-end real-estate still sells,  High-end lifestyle continues. And that's who primarily would benefit from the "bailout".

And yes, maybe a few dozen companies which had no business still being in business need to fail. Yes, banks have failed. But stronger banks who didn't gamble with their asset allocation have stepped in, with no impact to the "man on the street".  If you have more than $100,000 sitting in a bank account somewhere, you are foolish.  But how many folks actually have in excess of that "just laying around in a bank".  Not too many.

I saw on the local news a simply horrid "business" report by an airhead twinkette who probably couldn't find her way to Wall Street with a map.  She "interviewed" a somewhat-slimy looking financial expert who was advising folks to "switch to annuities".  Which is the simply most stupid investment decision for anyone except the ultra-rich or the ultra-old.  OK, yes, you might have some "guaranteed" gains (always good), but you will be paying that slimy salesman an endless commission.  Of course he loves the option! It's a Great Investment!......for the salesman.

Luckily most folks won't panic. Some will and they will be the sob stories down the road.

As noted above, I am mostly liberal. But I do believe in markets and capitalism and "the long run".  If you are diversified, you will be ok.  Perhaps you won't be able to buy a new car every two years. Maybe you should drive that old car for a decade instead. Perhaps you should rethink that $6 you spend at Starbucks everyday.  And those nasty cigarettes you are smoking?  Ditch them and save the bucks and, perhaps, your life.

So what now? Do we need a "bailout"?  Probably not.  

What we need are loan guarantees and some decent oversight. Oddly, that's probably what most of the failed legislation actually said. But this is not a simple problem that can be solved with a simple answer.  There is no quick fix. It will take time.  But the world isn't going to end if it takes a few weeks/months to settle things, especially since a new political regime is barely 90 days away..

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