The issue has been bubbling for over a month and as the 2008 Democratic Presidential contest has made its way past various "Super" Tuesdays, suddenly everyone is babbling about what should be done to guarantee that Democratic voters in MI and FL actually count for something.
Should the results stand? Or should there be a re-vote?
Overall, Obama holds a delegate lead of 120-150, depending on who is counting. He also holds roughly a 600,000 lead in actual votes cast. There are roughly 400 "automatic" superdelegates who have yet to weigh in.
Neither candidate can reach the magic 50%+1 to claim victory without the votes of these "party leaders".
Hillary wants to count the votes cast in Michigan and Florida, contrary to party rules agreed to by all. That would net her additional delegates. More importantly, it would raise the popular vote total to nearly match the Obama Vote Total.
Florida voted on January 29 in a primary whose date was set by the Florida Republican Legislature and signed into law by sexually-ambiguous Republican Governor Charlie Crist. As a penalty, the RNC halved the Florida delegate count. The DNC voted to strip Florida of all its convention delegates. The election was still held, with Hillary jetting in on election night to claim her 50%-33% victory. Of course, given the arcane proportional-representation delegate tally used by the DNC, the delegate breakdown was Hillary 113, Obama 71, a net +42 for Hillary
Michigan voted two weeks earlier, on January 15. The DNC also stripped them of their delegates months before the actual vote.
Obama's big mistake was removing his name from the Michigan ballot. In doing so, he lost a big chunk of "actual votes". That single bone-headed move allowed Hillary to gain 327,000 votes. "Uncommited" came in second with 237,000 votes. And Obama got ZERO. True, most of the "uncommitted" voters are likely Obamaniacs, but he still gets no actual votes should the January 15 results stand. In addition, she gains 80 delegates, while Uncommited gains 55.
So, Hillary nets 25 actual delegates, although she also has a shot at the automatic superdelegates. If Michigan is not counted, the automatic delegates are invalidated. If Michigan is seated, the automatic superdelegates are in play. At most, Hillary nets 50 total additional MI delegates.
If nothing is done and the DNC Credentials Committe votes to seat both delegation in August, Hillary gains less than 100 actual delegates. More likely, the number would be between 60-70. Seating both groups would also activate the "automatic" superdelegates. And it's unclear how they would vote.
A revote would probably help Obama in that he would gain votes in Michigan. Having a re-vote in both states would cost $20-30M, a huge waste of funds, although motivated Democrats could probably collect the money in a week.
Obama would gain tremendously by stepping up and directing his delegates to vote to seat both delegations as is. Sure, she would nip at his overall vote total. But his delegate lead would remain in tact. And many of the automatic superdelegates would no doubt be swayed by his leadership.
I still want Hillary to win, but spending $30M to hold two do-overs is just plain dumb.
Imagine how helpful that money would be to help drive voter turnout in November.